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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/20 11:24

   Soybeans Up Double Digits Midday Wednesday

   Corn trade is firm at midday Wednesday, beans are 15 cents higher and wheat 
is 6 to 15 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 150 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.09 lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed. 
Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up $14.


   Corn trade was mixed overnight and is steadily firmer Wednesday morning with 
trade up a nickel at midday. Harvest is moving along with yield reports staying 
fairly steady, providing the market with limited fresh fundamental news. The 
chart momentum since a week ago has been in bounce-mode, with a sell-the-rumor, 
buy-the-fact mindset surrounding the action around the WASDE report, which was 
bearish versus expectations. So, the chart momentum and outside market support 
appear to be behind the slow but firmer midday action. On the December 
contract, we have chart support at the 200-day moving average at $5.20 with the 
$5.06 3/4 low last Wednesday now a major support area. Chart resistance is 
right around the $5.35 area, which is the daily high and the 50-day moving 
average, with larger upside resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.46.  


   Soybean trade is 15 cents higher at midday with the upward momentum seeming 
to have slowed at this juncture in the day. Meal is up $4 and soybean oil is up 
2.00 cents. The strong bean oil trade is supporting beans along with chart 
buying. The market is flirting above the 20-day moving average at $12.44 on the 
November contract. If we can hold our midday gains into Wednesday afternoon, 
some short covering and fresh chart buying could show up. The daily high is 64 
cents higher than the low we printed a week ago, so this is a significant 
bounce with upside momentum there on the chart. Without some fresh bearish 
fundamental news, the market appears to have chart buyers in control. On the 
November soybean chart, support is at the $12.22 10-day moving average and then 
the recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the 20-day currently at $12.44 
then the 50-day at $12.81.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 15 cents higher at midday with upward momentum lead by 
Minneapolis, and there is spillover support from corn and beans. The drought in 
the spring wheat areas during and before the growing season remains a 
significant story echoed by our Minneapolis contract strength. With the move to 
new highs Wednesday, we are over $1 above the September low and a good chance 
we will see a $10 in front of the nearby contract before the day is over. KC 
December chart support is at the 20-day at $7.35 with resistance at the 10/4 
high of $7.64. At midday Wednesday, we are at a new high for the current move, 
therefore, if we can hold the gains, some short covering or fresh chart buying 
could show up near the close.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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