DTN Midday Livestock Comments          12/02 11:48

   Monday Morning Spurs Reversal in Feeder Cattle Market

   Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are trading lower after 
traders grow sheepish of the market's resistance.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading lower as there 
appears to be some profit-taking happening in the feeder cattle complex as the 
contracts have plummeted $2.00 to $3.00 this morning. And given that the feeder 
cattle complex has been leading the recent charge in the cattle complex, it's 
only fitting that both markets are trading lower into Monday's noon hour after 
starting the day off higher. March corn is steady and January soybean meal is 
down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 159.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex and the cash cattle market's momentum have 
recently been the biggest driving forces dictating the direction in which the 
live cattle contracts would trade. And so with the knee-jerk reaction of seeing 
feeders "hit the floor" and cut $2.00 to $3.00 out of their market without any 
hesitancy, it comes as no surprise that the live cattle market is also trading 
lower. December live cattle are down $0.45 at $187.52, February live cattle are 
down $1.15 at $187.47 and April live cattle are down $1.10 at $189.67. It's 
evident that packers were short bought heading into last week's market, and 
although they did commit most of last week's purchases to the nearby delivery, 
this week's cash cattle trade may still be well supported if packers are still 
short bought. Time will tell and it's unlikely that trade will develop before 
Thursday or Friday.

   Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $190 which is $4.00 higher 
than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly 
$291 to $306, but mostly at $295 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighed 
average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,753 head. Of that, 
69% (55,128 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 
31% (24,625 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.33 ($311.85) and select up $2.46 
($276.76) with a movement of 24 loads (13.77 loads of choice, 6.97 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 3.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   It's already been a whiplashing day for the feeder cattle complex as the 
market was charging, full steam ahead at Monday's start, but as the day's noon 
hour approaches, there seems to be some profit-taking happening in the futures 
complex which has led the contracts to dive $2.00 to $3.00 lower. And given 
that the contracts began to pressure the summertime highs reached just a couple 
of months ago, it's not all that bewildering to see some correction taking 
place early this week. But given that Mexican cattle imports are still being 
restricted, the market may recover and turn optimistic again at some point this 
week as demand in the countryside hasn't lessened. January feeders are down 
$2.65 at $256.82, March feeders are down $2.72 at $255.90 and April feeders are 
down $2.60 at $257.02.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is charging ahead into this new week as the market 
continues to be well supported by traders, and thankfully even pork cutout 
values are higher at noon too. Part of last week's weakness was the fact that 
consumer support wasn't stable, but thankfully demand isn't an issue this 
morning as retailers are likely restocking their coolers after the Thanksgiving 
holiday.  December lean hogs are up $0.85 at $82.92, February lean hogs are up 
$1.02 at $87.37 and April lean hogs are up $1.17 at $91.92.

   The projected lean hog index for 11/29/2024 is down $0.85 at $84.36, and the 
actual index for 11/27/2024 is down $0.30 at $85.21. Hog prices are unavailable 
on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we 
can see that only 135 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling 
average sits at $86.85. Pork cutouts total 143.36 loads with 114.64 loads of 
pork cuts and 28.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.95, $93.26.

   **

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   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    




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